Why Credit Outstandings in Cambodia will be Closer to $30b than $14b by 2020

There has been recent discussion about the likely amount of credit outstanding in Cambodia in 2020, following a forecast issued by the Cambodian Credit Bureau (CBC) that credit outstanding would be $14.7b in 2020, up from $5b at the end of 2013. While some felt this was about right, others felt it was too high.

We believe that it is far too low, and that credit outstandings will be at least $22.5b, and possibly closer to $30b, by 2020.

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RESEARCH REPORT:

KEY POINTS:

GDP growth forecast to be 7%-8% over the outlook period, resulting in Nominal GDP growth of 11%-12%.
Financial deepening will continue, with Credit Bureau forecasting 97% increase in consumer borrowers by 2020.
This is likely to drive credit growth of at least 15%-20%, leading to credit outstandings of $23b to $30b by 2020.
Bank/MFI capital levels will need to increase significantly.